The new Premier League season gets underway in a matter of hours.
It feels like an eternity ago that Manchester City lifted their third title in four years with everything from Euro 2020, Copa America 2021, Tokyo 2020 transpiring in the mean time.
However, we’re back to business when it comes to arguably the best league in world football because Brentford and Arsenal are set to get things started when they lock horns on Friday.
Predicting the Premier League
As such, there has been something of a last-minute dash for fans to lay down their predictions for the new campaign, revealing their picks for the title winner, top four and relegation candidates.
Here at GIVEMESPORT, we have also given our own prediction for the final 2021/22 Premier League table, but we’re acutely aware that we are by no means a modern-day Nostradamus.
As a result, we are more than open to the idea that there might be better ways through which the new Premier League season could be predicted – and one of those is most definitely data.
Chelsea 1-1 Villarreal Super Cup Highlights (Football Terrace)
Premier League data
While you might have seen the odd ‘supercomputer’ prediction floating around by now, there is perhaps no better statistical predictor in the world of sport than fivethirtyeight.com.
With their data gurus delivering forecasts across everything from politics to science, you get the feeling that sport must be a piece of cake for them – and their 2021/22 predictions are officially live.
Naturally, we couldn’t resist turning our attention to who they think will win the Premier League and we can now reveal the average final table from all the simulated seasons that they cycled through.
Data analysts predict the Premier League
Using a complex algorithm, which you can learn more about here, the data analysts have been able to produce a mean table that ranks all 20 clubs by their chances of winning the title this season.
So, without further ado, be sure to check out how the average simulated table looks down below to get an idea of how the data sees the 2021/22 Premier League season playing out.
20. Watford – 36 points
19. Norwich City – 37 points
18. Crystal Palace – 38 points
17. Brentford – 37 points
16. Burnley – 41 points
15. Southampton – 43 points
14. Newcastle United – 44 points
13. Wolverhampton Wanderers – 46 points
12. Everton – 50 points
11. Leeds United – 50 points
10. Aston Villa – 50 points
9. Brighton & Hove Albion – 51 points
8. West Ham United – 52 points
7. Leicester City – 57 points
6. Tottenham Hotspur – 60 points
5. Arsenal – 60 points
4. Manchester United – 68 points
3. Chelsea – 73 points
2. Liverpool – 74 points
1. Manchester City – 81 points
The statistical breakdown in full
Man City favourites for the title
So, there you have it, City are the statistical darlings when it comes to this season’s Premier League and are tipped at having almost double the likelihood of winning the title compared to Liverpool.
However, aside from the title race, I think we can all agree that the statistical model has thrown up a few surprising predictions and none more so than Brighton finishing in the top half of the table.
There’s no denying that Graham Potter has done a fantastic job on the south coast, but it seems highly unlikely that a team struggling so much to win on a consistent basis would finish so high.
Meanwhile, Everton fans can probably feel hard done by down in 12th place, Crystal Palace are the fall-guy of the non-promoted teams and United are tipped to decline by at least six points.
In other words, be sure to take the data analysis with a pinch of salt and draw your own conclusions on the side because rest assured that the Premier League will be, if enough else, unpredictable.